Setup

A checkout service runs on 12 instances. Each instance has a database connection pool with a maximum of 30 connections and a 5-second timeout to acquire one.

A routine deploy went out at 10:00. Its main change added promo-code validation to checkout. The deploy passed canary checks and looked healthy for hours.

At 16:30 an alert fires: checkout p99 latency is 4 seconds. Normal is around 300 ms.

Stages

Stage 1: The alert

  • CPU on the checkout instances is at 15%.
  • Database CPU is at 20%, and the slow query log is empty.
  • Error logs show a growing number of timeout acquiring connection from pool after 5000ms.
  • No deploys or config changes since 10:00.

Commit before you see the outcome

Your call

Checkout latency is climbing hours after a deploy, while CPU and database load look normal. What is your leading hypothesis, and what do you do in the next 15 minutes?

Move the slider (or use the arrow keys) to set it. 0% is a pure guess; 100% means you'd bet on it.

After you reveal, your answer and confidence are locked. That's the point.